Will the Democratic Party win the CA-22 House seat?

This CA-22 market shows a stalled Democratic position at 67¢ with virtually no trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) despite $12.1K open interest, suggesting limited liquidity and potential difficulty executing larger positions. The extreme 368.8% implied yield on the "No" side combined with an 11.67 volatility ratio and 1433% realized volatility indicates significant mispricing or structural imbalance—the market may be overweighting tail risk scenarios. With 201 days to the November 2026 election and a neutral regime score, the lack of price movement and information arrival (5.1/h) suggests this market is currently underdiscovered relative to its fundamental importance.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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