Will the Bitcoin realized volatility index hit 60 by April 30?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $56k open interest and a massive 67¢ bid-ask spread, suggesting the 56¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The implied yields are extraordinarily high (4013% risk-adjusted), indicating either severe mispricing or that traders are pricing in substantial cliff risk as the market approaches expiration in 12 days with only a 2-point move needed (current realized vol at 1330% vs. the 60 threshold). The neutral regime and 4.6 information arrivals per hour suggest market uncertainty, making this a potentially illiquid trap where the wide spread could mask the true probability of Bitcoin's volatility index breaching 60 by end of April.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Polylayer data point for the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Polylayer, specifically the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index values available at https://polylayer.xyz/crvix/btc, with the chart settings on "7D". A data point is considered finalized once the next data point is published. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the BTC-CRVIX 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market. For reference, the methodology can be found at: https://polylayer.xyz/crvix

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