Will the Democratic Party win the PA-15 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $37,918 in open interest, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect true consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp moves once trading resumes. The 2416.7% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high—typical of deeply mispriced long-shot bets—while the 13 Cliff Risk Index indicates significant tail risk, likely reflecting uncertainty about candidate emergence or district dynamics in this Republican-leaning seat. With 201 days to expiration and a wide 2¢ spread, this market appears to be pricing in a strong Republican lean for PA-15, but the lack of recent price discovery and extreme yield asymmetry warrant caution about relying on the current quote.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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