Will the Republican Party win the WA-05 House seat?

The Republican contract is pricing WA-05 as a heavily favored seat at 73¢, but the extreme asymmetry in implied yields—67.3% for Yes versus 491.8% for No—signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the No side offering outsized returns that suggest limited market confidence in the consensus view. The $19.7k open interest against just $200 in 24-hour volume indicates this market is largely inactive and potentially vulnerable to sharp repricing as the 201-day countdown to the November 2026 election progresses. With a 2¢ spread and neutral regime score, the market appears to be waiting for more concrete candidate information or polling data to drive meaningful price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade