Will the Democratic Party win the VT-AL House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided political dynamic in Vermont's at-large House seat, with Democrats priced at 94¢ implying a 94% win probability—unsurprising given Vermont's deep blue lean. The No side shows an astronomical 2,849.7% implied yield, indicating minimal liquidity on the Republican outcome despite $30.6M in open interest, creating a severe asymmetry where a Republican upset would generate outsized returns. With zero 24-hour volume and a stable price over seven days, the market appears frozen with little new information flowing in, though the 201-day timeline to the November 2026 election provides ample time for conditions to shift.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VT-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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