Will Seattle Mariners win the 2026 American League Championship Series?

The Mariners' 17¢ price reflects a 17% playoff probability with an exceptionally high 896.9% implied yield on the YES side, suggesting significant underpricing relative to their expected postseason odds—though the modest $17k daily volume and $14.5M open interest indicate limited liquidity to exploit this potential mispricing. The market has declined 2¢ over seven days and shows a tight 1¢ spread, but the extreme yield differential warrants caution given the Cliff Risk Index of 5, which flags potential structural issues or binary event risk that could create resolution complications. With 199 days to expiry, this remains a speculative long-dated bet on a team that would need to both make the playoffs and win a best-of-seven series against AL competition.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 American League Championship Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 American League Championship Series per the rules of the MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 American League Championship Series is cancelled, postponed after November 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from Major League Baseball (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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