Will Constance N. Johnson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $9.2M open interest, suggesting the position is largely illiquid and potentially trapped. The 8¢ price implies only an 8% probability for Johnson, but the astronomical 7005% implied yield on the Yes side indicates severe mispricing or a highly speculative long position that's unlikely to materialize. The sharp price decline from 10¢ to 8¢ over seven days combined with 1041% realized volatility and a 12 Cliff Risk Index suggests this market is experiencing distress, possibly from a single large position unwinding or market maker withdrawal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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