Will Milady floor price reach 6 ETH before 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Milady floor price reach 6 ETH before 2027?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. The Yes position is pricing in only a 14% probability that Milady's floor will reach 6 ETH within the next 259 days, yet offers an extraordinary 866% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward profile.
Analysis
The Yes position is pricing in only a 14% probability that Milady's floor will reach 6 ETH within the next 259 days, yet offers an extraordinary 866% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the risk-reward profile. The market has experienced severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 18¢ spread, while the price has collapsed 46% over seven days (from 26¢ to 14¢), indicating either deteriorating sentiment or thin order books amplifying minor trades. The extreme realized volatility of 1695% and cliff risk index of 6 suggest this market is highly sensitive to NFT market shocks, making the current pricing potentially exploitable for contrarian traders despite the low liquidity environment.
Resolution rules
This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if the Milady floor price reaches 6 ETH or higher at any point between December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market will be NftPriceFloor, specifically the "Milady price chart" available at https://nftpricefloor.com/milady, with "1M" selected on the top bar. The price will be determined based on the value shown when hovering over the chart. Only data from NFTPriceFloor will be used to resolve this market. Prices from other data providers or NFT marketplaces will not be considered.
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Trade
sf trade 0x446707d1e36c0a68cf6989437cacf51f89e5c32ce380edc531e16818871acc4a yes 100