Will the Democratic Party win the MD-05 House seat?

The 93¢ price reflects overwhelming confidence in Democratic retention of Maryland's 5th district, though the extreme 2416.8% implied yield on the "No" outcome signals severe illiquidity on the opposing side with only $24,056 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 1¢ spread is tight, but the massive cliff risk index of 13 and the stark disparity between the 13.7% Democratic yield versus the 2416.8% Republican yield suggest this market lacks meaningful price discovery, with the No side potentially mispriced due to minimal trading activity rather than genuine confidence in Democratic dominance.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade