Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

The 7¢ price reflects an extremely low resignation probability, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1,880% implied yield—a classic risk-reward asymmetry typical of tail-risk markets. With $150M in open interest but only $10.5K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is severely constrained relative to position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger traders. The 13 Cliff Risk Index and 258-day timeframe suggest meaningful event concentration risk, though the neutral regime and tight 1¢ spread indicate market participants are relatively confident in the current pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Regime

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