Will the Democratic Party win the GA-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $16k open interest, suggesting the 94¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the thin order book. The massive 2860% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of a lopsided market where minimal capital is backing a Republican win in this Democratic-leaning district, creating outsized returns for contrarian bettors willing to take that tail risk. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in a near-certain Democratic hold, but the combination of zero recent trading activity and extreme asymmetric yields warrants caution about whether this price discovery is reliable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade