Will Pat Murphy win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.25M open interest, coupled with a massive 65¢ bid-ask spread and realized volatility of 946% that suggests sporadic, outsized trades rather than continuous price discovery. Murphy's 33¢ price has surged 154% over seven days (from 13¢), driving an unusually high 300% implied yield on the Yes side, though the 4.96 volatility ratio and low information arrival rate (1.3/h) indicate this move may reflect thin-market dynamics rather than fundamental conviction about his managerial prospects. With 247 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this contract appears undertraded and potentially mispriced, making it risky for position-building without deeper liquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 National League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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