Will Apple (AAPL) close above $260 end of April?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $802k open interest, and the 24¢ spread reflects significant pricing uncertainty just 11 days from expiry. The 71¢ price implies AAPL needs roughly a 3.8% move above $260 in under two weeks, yet the realized volatility of 297% and asymmetric implied yields (1312% for Yes vs. 7867% for No) suggest the market is pricing in substantial tail risk rather than a directional conviction. The sharp 8¢ price decline over seven days combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 2 and low info arrival rate (2.8/h) indicates this contract may be illiquid and prone to mispricing, making it a speculative rather than efficient market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Apple (AAPL) on the final trading day of April 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Apple (AAPL) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history, published under "Historical Prices." In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.

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