Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.3% and 0.5%?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion, with zero 24-hour volume despite $86.7k open interest and a massive 25¢ bid-ask spread that likely reflects the difficulty in trading. The price has crashed 45% over seven days (31¢ to 17¢), yet the implied yield of 5,453% on the Yes side appears artificially inflated due to the thin liquidity and small position sizes rather than genuine conviction about Japan's Q1 2026 GDP landing in the 0.3-0.5% range. With only 33 days to expiry and resolution tied to an official May 19 release, the high cliff risk index (5) and realized volatility (1,073%) suggest this market is prone to sharp repricing once actual data approaches, making the current 17¢ price unreliable for serious prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html

Indicators

Regime

Trade