Will 54 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and distress signals despite 258 days to expiry: zero 24-hour volume, a massive 17¢ spread, and a 742.7% implied yield on the "Yes" side suggesting the 12¢ price may be artificially depressed. The 7-day price collapse from 39¢ to 12¢ combined with 555% realized volatility and a cliff risk index of 5 indicates either a significant negative catalyst or liquidity crisis rather than genuine probability reassessment. With only $521k open interest and the market still 8+ months from resolution, the extreme yield and wide spread suggest this is a dead or abandoned position rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

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