Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat?

This OH-09 market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $12.6k open interest, making the 64¢ price potentially unreliable for real conviction. The No side offers a striking 323% risk-adjusted implied yield compared to just 102% for Yes, suggesting the market may be mispriced or that contrarian bettors see value in backing the Republican despite the Democratic lean. With 201 days to expiration, the 1009% realized volatility and 8.60 vol ratio indicate this is a highly unstable, thinly-traded market where large information arrivals (3.3/hour) could swing prices dramatically.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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