Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 67% probability that Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 67¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Portugal's 67¢ price reflects a two-thirds chance of winning Group K, but the market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the "No" side offering 1044.9% versus just 253.5% for "Yes," suggesting significant underpricing of upset scenarios.
Analysis
Portugal's 67¢ price reflects a two-thirds chance of winning Group K, but the market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the "No" side offering 1044.9% versus just 253.5% for "Yes," suggesting significant underpricing of upset scenarios. With only $5.91 in 24-hour volume against $9.76k open interest and 71 days to expiry, liquidity is thin and the market could be vulnerable to sharp repricing if Portugal's qualifying performance or group composition shifts market sentiment. The modest 3¢ price rise over seven days and neutral regime score indicate the market has stabilized, though the high cliff risk index warrants caution on sudden moves closer to the June tournament start.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0x4795571ed1c6992ca07b6d34853d07d07ef4977b892660b4205cd2f3752c4826 yes 100