Will the Republican Party win the GA-14 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Republican win probability at 92¢, but the extreme 2098.6% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the contrarian bet—the $0 24-hour volume and modest $19,258 open interest suggest this market lacks meaningful price discovery. With 200 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 12, the market appears to be reflecting a heavily favored Republican outcome in GA-14, though the dramatic asymmetry in yields warrants caution about relying on this price as a true probability estimate given the thin trading activity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade