Will Daulton Varsho win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Daulton Varsho win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing December 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.5M open interest, and the massive 75¢ spread indicates a significant bid-ask gap that makes execution difficult.

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10¢
Bid/Ask /20¢·Spread 20¢·Vol $0·OI $1,491.409·Closes Dec 19, 2026·241d remaining
0x484e18c8288ce1c6aef60074c705bbbd8889b267b2dbb7ed4b4264e5c274a35a
7-day price284 snapshots · 4 regime
41¢10¢ current
Apr 1210¢Apr 20

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.5M open interest, and the massive 75¢ spread indicates a significant bid-ask gap that makes execution difficult. The 241% implied yield on the yes side is extraordinarily high, suggesting either severe mispricing or that market participants view Varsho as a substantial underdog relative to the contract's risk premium. With 247 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 830%, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal recent price discovery, making the 38¢ quote potentially unreliable for actual trading.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 American League Platinum Glove award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1363.2%
IY (No) 16.8%
Adj IY 682%
CRI 9
Overround 6.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1363.2%
IY (No)16.8%
Adj IY682%
CRI9
Overround6.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
20¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 12:48:06 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:38:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x484e18c8288ce1c6aef60074c705bbbd8889b267b2dbb7ed4b4264e5c274a35a yes 100

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