USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?

The market has rallied dramatically from 45¢ to 79¢ over seven days, reflecting strong conviction that USD.AI will exceed a $250M FDV within one day of launch, though the extreme 530% implied yield on the "No" side suggests significant tail risk pricing. Volume of $6.3M against $12.8M open interest indicates moderate liquidity with a tight 1¢ spread, but the 4.71 volatility ratio and 305% realized volatility point to substantial uncertainty despite the high probability price. With 259 days to resolution and an information arrival rate of 1.4 events per hour, this market remains highly sensitive to project developments, though the neutral regime and 4/10 cliff risk score suggest the current pricing may be relatively stable absent major news.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of USD.AI's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If USD.AI (https://usd.ai/) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Regime

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