Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1m barrels per day in 2026?

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $5.6M open interest, suggesting the 93¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the massive 1530% implied yield on the "No" side versus only 8.7% for "Yes"—a 175x divergence that indicates severe mispricing or trapped capital. Venezuelan crude production has collapsed from 3M barrels per day in 2011 to roughly 750k currently, making the 1M bpd threshold by 2026 a substantial recovery requiring significant geopolitical and infrastructure improvements within 14 months, yet the market prices this at 93% probability. The tight 1¢ spread and 317 days to resolution provide time for price discovery, but the absence of recent trading activity and extreme yield asymmetry suggest this contract may be abandoned or subject to significant repricing if liquidity returns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

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