Will Aric Nesbitt win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Aric Nesbitt win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Aric Nesbitt's odds have surged dramatically from 3¢ to 22¢ over seven days, suggesting recent positive information arrival (1.0/h), though the 4-point Cliff Risk Index indicates potential for sharp reversals.
Analysis
Aric Nesbitt's odds have surged dramatically from 3¢ to 22¢ over seven days, suggesting recent positive information arrival (1.0/h), though the 4-point Cliff Risk Index indicates potential for sharp reversals. The 4¢ cross-venue gap (22¢ on Polymarket vs. 26¢ on Kalshi) and extremely thin $142 daily volume present arbitrage opportunities but signal low liquidity confidence in this relatively niche primary market. The astronomical 1216% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the long-tail nature of this bet with 106 days to resolution, though the 5.17 volatility ratio and 2554% realized volatility suggest this market remains highly uncertain and reactive to campaign developments.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Michigan, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Michigan Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Michigan Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x4a0ead3d8c0aa0a73f322aaa95615e7d29b414b9fc4bace855bb74a7a648d990 yes 100