Will Buffalo Bills win the 2026 AFC East?
Prediction markets currently give a 56% probability that Will Buffalo Bills win the 2026 AFC East?. This contract trades at 56¢ on Polymarket, closing January 4, 2027. The Buffalo Bills are priced at 64¢ with an exceptionally wide 37¢ spread and minimal $10 daily volume, suggesting this illiquid market may not reflect true consensus probability.
Analysis
The Buffalo Bills are priced at 64¢ with an exceptionally wide 37¢ spread and minimal $10 daily volume, suggesting this illiquid market may not reflect true consensus probability. The 128.2% implied yield on the Yes side and extreme 447% realized volatility indicate significant pricing uncertainty, though the modest 1.8 info arrivals per hour and neutral regime suggest no imminent catalyst is driving the market. With 263 days to expiration and only $28.5k open interest, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than a well-calibrated forecast.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC East division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0x4a2f2a0b4d381c7db4154b10f083fb6143de7b0051757623c6e92b74dc57432e yes 100