Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
Prediction markets currently give a 39% probability that Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?. This contract trades at 39¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The 77¢ price reflects strong market confidence in Claude's performance on Humanity's Last Exam, but the extreme 1733% implied yield on the "No" side signals substantial tail-risk hedging demand, suggesting sophisticated traders see meaningful downside scenarios despite the high baseline probability.
Analysis
The 77¢ price reflects strong market confidence in Claude's performance on Humanity's Last Exam, but the extreme 1733% implied yield on the "No" side signals substantial tail-risk hedging demand, suggesting sophisticated traders see meaningful downside scenarios despite the high baseline probability. With $7.25M open interest and only 4¢ spread, this is a well-capitalized market, though the 259% realized volatility and 1.88 vol ratio indicate significant price swings—the modest 1¢ decline over 7 days masks underlying turbulence. The 75-day timeframe leaves ample room for new information about Claude's capabilities or exam difficulty to reshape expectations.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
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Trade
sf trade 0x4a3ae5bc03b849fa2aae19b687428cc9cbf27ce27a966bacdc879fa067a62a2d yes 100