Will the Republican Party win the NM-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1471.8% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 22.5% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of Republican chances in this heavily Democratic district. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18.4M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates illiquidity despite substantial capital at risk, creating potential execution challenges for traders seeking to adjust positions. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in a near-certain Democratic hold, though the high cliff risk index (8) warrants caution about late-breaking political developments that could dramatically shift this heavily skewed probability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade