Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing June 30, 2026. The 9-cent price reflects extreme skepticism about OpenAI reaching a $1.5T valuation on IPO day, pricing in just a 9% probability despite the company's current ~$157B valuation requiring only a 9.6x multiple—a substantial but not unprecedented jump for a high-growth AI leader.
Analysis
The 9-cent price reflects extreme skepticism about OpenAI reaching a $1.5T valuation on IPO day, pricing in just a 9% probability despite the company's current ~$157B valuation requiring only a 9.6x multiple—a substantial but not unprecedented jump for a high-growth AI leader. The astronomical 4992.6% implied yield on the "Yes" side signals severe mispricing potential if an IPO materializes at that valuation, though the high cliff risk index (10) and recent 25% price decline over seven days suggest market uncertainty about IPO timing and valuation assumptions. With 74 days to expiry and thin $187 daily volume, this illiquid market may not efficiently price the binary IPO event risk, making it vulnerable to sharp repricing if OpenAI announces concrete IPO plans.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
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sf trade 0x4a8005d19b41af72c1cd5c619640d9d51da548dd7c3544b12ae0c520d9e6805b yes 100