OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.5T+
Leader sits at 33% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1.5T+
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
1.5T+
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
573 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.5T+
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.5T+
0x4a8005…805b
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap: 1.5T+
0x258cf8…0260
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance that OpenAI will go public with a market capitalization of $1.5 trillion or higher by the end of 2026. The current 44% probability reflects significant uncertainty around both timing and valuation. Market pricing suggests traders view a near-term IPO as unlikely—the 73¢ contract for "no IPO by December 31, 2026" indicates most expect the process to extend beyond this year. OpenAI's actual IPO timeline depends on regulatory approval, internal governance decisions, and market conditions. Key resolution drivers include formal IPO announcements, SEC filings, or public statements from leadership about timing. The wide gap between the no-IPO contract (73¢) and the 1.5T+ contract (11¢) suggests traders see liquidity events and high valuations as less probable near-term outcomes, though OpenAI's recent funding rounds and continued AI market dominance create potential upside catalysts.
- ›OpenAI has not announced an IPO filing or formal timeline; the 73¢ price on the no-IPO contract suggests market consensus expects delays beyond 2026
- ›OpenAI's last known valuation was $80-100 billion (late 2023); reaching $1.5T would require 15-20x growth, requiring demonstrated revenue acceleration or market sentiment shift
- ›SEC regulatory scrutiny of AI companies and governance structure uncertainty could delay or complicate a public offering
- ›Competitive pressure from other AI companies and potential changes in OpenAI's corporate structure (e.g., for-profit conversion) remain unresolved
- ›Market liquidity conditions and broader tech IPO appetite in late 2026 will materially affect both probability of listing and valuation multiples
What moved the line
- Jun 41.5T+↓9pp30→21¢ · Polymarket
- May 301.5T+↓7pp41→34¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 31.5T+↑5pp32→37¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 41.5T+↓4pp37→33¢ · Polymarket
- May 291.5T+↓3pp44→41¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in ai tech
- How many SpaceX launches in May?: 14 or morelast 90% · 3d
- Largest Company end of May?: NVIDIAlast 97% · 4d
- What will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit in May 2026?: ↑ $240last 3% · 6d
- Anthropic valued higher than OpenAI in 2026last 90% · 7d
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above ___ end of April?: $200last 5% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (33% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ai tech
Related reading
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OpenAI IPO Fading: 'No IPO by 2026' Surges to 66¢
OpenAI's IPO probability continues declining as markets price in long-term privacy, while Databricks emerges as the likely AI bellwether for a potential tech listing window reopening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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