Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?

Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will the Democratic Party win the OH-01 House seat?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Polymarket, closing November 4, 2026.

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78¢
Bid/Ask 75/80¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $15,673.683·Closes Nov 4, 2026·196d remaining
0x4af0fa1c69cdf730e0af62b006e31b6c0bf2b73ed66819bfdb44b6a85d7b8192
7-day price853 snapshots · 3 regime
79¢78¢ current
Apr 835¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

IY (Yes) 52.5%
IY (No) 659.7%
Adj IY 330%
CRI 4
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)52.5%
IY (No)659.7%
Adj IY330%
CRI4

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:25:28 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x4af0fa1c69cdf730e0af62b006e31b6c0bf2b73ed66819bfdb44b6a85d7b8192 yes 100

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