Will the Republican Party win the IL-14 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with the Yes position offering a staggering 2120% implied yield against just 16% for No, suggesting severe undervaluation of Republican chances in IL-14 despite the district's competitive history. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $19,867 open interest and a tight 2¢ spread indicates low liquidity and potential illiquidity risk, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. With nearly 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a neglected market where the extreme yield differential warrants caution about whether the pricing reflects genuine fundamentals or simply thin trading conditions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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