Will Malta come in last place at Eurovision 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Malta come in last place at Eurovision 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 16, 2026. Malta's last-place finish at Eurovision 2026 is priced at a modest 6% probability with extremely thin liquidity ($27.41 in 24h volume) and a wide 9¢ spread, creating significant execution risk for traders.
Analysis
Malta's last-place finish at Eurovision 2026 is priced at a modest 6% probability with extremely thin liquidity ($27.41 in 24h volume) and a wide 9¢ spread, creating significant execution risk for traders. The astronomical 20,518% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine edge, while the 28-day window to the May 16 close leaves ample time for price discovery. With a Cliff Risk Index of 16 and neutral regime conditions, this appears to be a low-conviction, low-volume market where the price may not reflect Malta's actual Eurovision competitive positioning.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x4c05df844d0269b5b9880fdbccc3ea1daa4627bb5e9c4aaaf7e2bfb4ecbeb047 yes 100