Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will SpaceX have less than or equal to 11 launches in April?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market displays extreme yield metrics (4518% implied yield on Yes) paired with modest 24h volume of $122.7k and a wide 24¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine opportunity.
Analysis
This market displays extreme yield metrics (4518% implied yield on Yes) paired with modest 24h volume of $122.7k and a wide 24¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine opportunity. With only 14 days to resolution and SpaceX's demonstrated launch cadence (typically 8-12 monthly launches), the 37¢ price appears to undervalue the probability of ≤11 launches, though the neutral regime and 1757% realized volatility indicate significant uncertainty about April 2026 scheduling. The high info arrival rate (2.6/h) and cliff risk index of 2 suggest this market is sensitive to launch announcements, making the current price potentially unstable as we approach month-end.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
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Trade
sf trade 0x4cff3ac1db4873ee8ed548ecf2dc6650481ab45f933917e8f9fd848c0e72241f yes 100