Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability of Democratic victory at 93¢, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $31k in open interest, suggesting limited recent conviction or liquidity for traders seeking to adjust this consensus view. The massive 2425% implied yield on the "No" side reflects the extreme skew—while theoretically attractive, it represents only a 7% probability and carries substantial cliff risk (index of 13), indicating this contract could experience sharp repricing if conditions shift. With nearly two years until resolution, the neutral regime and minimal 1¢ price movement over seven days suggest the market has settled into a stable equilibrium around Democratic favorability in this traditionally blue state.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Oregon U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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