Will the Republican Party win the TN-08 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Republican win probability at 93¢, but the zero 24-hour volume combined with a modest $26,853 open interest suggests minimal liquidity and potential staleness in pricing. The extreme implied yield asymmetry—2416.7% for "No" versus 13.7% for "Yes"—indicates the No position is severely underpriced relative to risk, a classic sign of illiquid markets where the bid-ask spread doesn't reflect true probability uncertainty. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market may warrant skepticism about whether the 93¢ price genuinely reflects consensus or simply reflects low trading activity locking in an outdated consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade