Will the Republican Party win the NY-06 House seat?

This market is pricing Republicans at just 8% to win NY-06, reflecting the district's strong Democratic lean, yet the extreme 2099% implied yield on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity with only $19,574 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 2¢ spread and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 suggest thin order books and potential execution challenges, making this contract difficult to trade despite the theoretically attractive odds for contrarian Republican backers. With 200 days to expiry, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the price may not reflect genuine probability so much as the scarcity of willing counterparties.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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