Will the Republican Party win the WA-09 House seat?

The Republican position in WA-09 is priced at an extremely depressed 7¢, implying a 2416.7% annualized yield for Yes holders—a stark asymmetry compared to the 13.7% yield for No positions that suggests severe undervaluation or structural market dysfunction. With zero 24-hour volume despite $27,657 in open interest and a wide 2¢ spread, this appears to be a liquidity desert where the price may not reflect genuine consensus, particularly given WA-09's historical Democratic lean which would justify single-digit odds but not necessarily such an extreme risk-reward skew. The 201-day timeframe and neutral regime score suggest this market has stabilized, but the extraordinary implied yield differential warrants skepticism about whether the 7¢ price reflects true probability or merely thin order books.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade