Will the Democratic Party win the FL-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing in only a 16% win probability for FL-02, yet shows an extraordinarily high 958% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or significant underpricing relative to fundamentals. With zero 24-hour volume despite $17.3K open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a stale or abandoned position rather than an actively traded market. The 200-day timeframe to the November 2026 midterms provides ample time for repricing, but the lack of trading activity and extreme yield asymmetry (958% vs. 35%) warrant caution about execution risk if attempting to trade this contract.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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