Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing a Taiwan visit at just 6¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($0 in 24h volume) and a massive 2,216% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting minimal conviction behind the low probability despite $7.6M open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing a Taiwan visit at just 6¢ with extremely thin liquidity ($0 in 24h volume) and a massive 2,216% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting minimal conviction behind the low probability despite $7.6M open interest. The price has doubled from 3¢ in seven days, indicating recent sentiment shift toward lower likelihood, though the near-zero trading volume raises questions about whether this reflects genuine market repricing or stale pricing. With 258 days to expiry and a 16 Cliff Risk Index, this appears to be a speculative position with high execution risk rather than a liquid probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x4eea504d6a9a609f2e6fe6b88de6327755282192ebbae4b3b170eac91b611214 yes 100