Will Matt Quatraro win the 2026 AL Manager of the Year?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 28¢ spread despite modest $1.8k open interest, suggesting very thin order books and potentially stale pricing. The 908.6% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine expected returns, while the 4217% realized volatility indicates this contract has experienced wild price swings historically. With 247 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the 14¢ price appears reasonable for a mid-tier managerial candidate, but traders should be cautious about execution given the severe liquidity constraints.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the manager who wins the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award for the 2026 MLB Season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the manager whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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