Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?

The Republican contract at 72¢ reflects a strong GOP lean in NY-21, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (70.7% for Yes vs. 467.8% for No) suggest the No side is severely underpriced relative to tail risk, indicating potential mispricing or illiquidity concerns on the bearish side. With only $100 in 24-hour volume against $16.6M open interest, this market shows thin liquidity despite substantial capital deployed, and the modest 1¢ price decline over seven days suggests relatively stable sentiment with 201 days until resolution. The neutral regime score and low cliff risk index (3) indicate no imminent catalysts, though traders should monitor whether Democratic recruitment efforts or demographic shifts in this upstate district materially challenge the current Republican positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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