Will the Republican Party win the MN-01 House seat?

The Republican contract at 60¢ shows a modest 1¢ decline over seven days in a neutral regime, but the asymmetric implied yields—121% for Yes versus 273% for No—suggest the No side is significantly underpriced relative to perceived risk, indicating potential mispricing or strong conviction among sellers. With only $290 in 24-hour volume against $18.6K open interest and a tight 3¢ spread, liquidity is thin for a race with 201 days to resolution, making the market susceptible to sharp moves on limited order flow. The elevated realized volatility (154%) and high info arrival rate (1.0/h) point to active repricing, though the low Cliff Risk Index of 2 suggests the market isn't pricing in imminent catalysts before the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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