Will the Republican Party win the OH-04 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Republican probability at 92¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $24k open interest suggest thin liquidity that may not reflect true consensus. The implied yield for a "No" position reaches an extraordinary 2091.8%, indicating severe mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient capital to equilibrate—this extreme skew warrants caution about relying on this price as a reliable forecast for the 2026 Ohio race.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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