Will 55 senators vote “Yea” for Trump’s Fed Chair nominee?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $792 open interest, and the 52¢ spread indicates significant pricing uncertainty around whether 55 senators will vote yes. The Yes position offers a striking 382.6% implied yield, suggesting the market is pricing in a low probability (27%) that the nominee clears this threshold, though the 439% realized volatility and recent sharp price movement from 7¢ to 27¢ over seven days signal high uncertainty and potential mispricing. With 258 days to expiry and an info arrival rate of 1.1 events per hour, this market appears to be in early-stage discovery with thin liquidity that could make entry or exit costly.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the number of senators who vote “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The vote count refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the highest bracket. If the nomination is rejected by vote without a specified vote count, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No vote by December 31/Withdrawn”. Votes cast by the Vice President, if any, will not be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.

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