Will the Republican Party win the TX-02 House seat?

The market is pricing Republicans as heavy favorites in TX-02 at 89¢, reflecting the district's Republican lean, though the extreme 1471.7% implied yield on the No side suggests minimal conviction in a Democratic upset. Volume is remarkably thin at just $8.33 over 24 hours despite $22.4k in open interest, indicating low liquidity that could amplify price swings as the November 2026 election approaches. The 8/10 cliff risk index and asymmetric yield profile (22.5% vs 1471.7%) warn that this market could experience sharp repricing if political conditions shift, making it suitable only for risk-tolerant traders with conviction on either side.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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