Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 43% probability that Over $400M raised on Coinbase in 2026?. This contract trades at 43¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme volatility (972% realized vol) with a sharp 29% price decline over 7 days (59¢ to 42¢), suggesting either new bearish information or thin-book price swings on minimal $58 daily volume.
Analysis
This illiquid micro-market shows extreme volatility (972% realized vol) with a sharp 29% price decline over 7 days (59¢ to 42¢), suggesting either new bearish information or thin-book price swings on minimal $58 daily volume. The 194.6% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated by low liquidity rather than genuine conviction, and the 8.08 vol ratio indicates the market is pricing significant uncertainty relative to historical moves. With 259 days to resolution and only $1.8k open interest, this market lacks the depth to reliably predict whether Coinbase will exceed $400M in 2026 token raises.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount raised by Coinbase token sales in 2026 exceeds the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be official information published by Coinbase, the respective Coinbase token sale pages, or official communications from projects raising on Coinbase.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x50208733d2ccd03d19d6cd27f3a85de8a7fd67ae68fceb48178644ad62a6dbc2 yes 100