Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

United Russia is priced at 65¢ with a notably asymmetric risk profile—the "No" side offers a 408.5% implied yield versus just 118.5% for "Yes," suggesting significant tail risk that the ruling party fails to secure the most seats despite historical dominance. The market has declined 5¢ over seven days with 116% realized volatility, yet maintains relatively thin liquidity at $81.6K open interest and only $7.4K daily volume, making it susceptible to sharp moves as the September 2026 election approaches. With 166 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, the high information arrival rate (0.6/h) indicates active price discovery, though the 2.0 cliff risk index warrants caution on execution given the thin spreads may not reflect true depth.

Resolution rules

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that gains the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election, compared to before the election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats gained, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats gained by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.

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