Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket.

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9¢
Bid/Ask 8/10¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $3.257·OI $40,425.176·195d remaining
0x50b78cd83de62d75d504d7a184ba1171436628068b3c3d4dd0384e65d4a40d1b
7-day price5 snapshots · 2 regime
9¢9¢ current
Apr 137¢Apr 14

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1891.1%
IY (No) 18.5%
Adj IY 946%
CRI 10
▶ Full indicator table (4)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1891.1%
IY (No)18.5%
Adj IY946%
CRI10

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.477
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:27:04 PM
Observability mediumEvent type political
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x50b78cd83de62d75d504d7a184ba1171436628068b3c3d4dd0384e65d4a40d1b yes 100

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