Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?

The Republican contract is priced at a substantial 85¢ with an extremely asymmetric risk profile, where a No position offers a 1034.6% implied yield compared to just 32.2% for Yes, reflecting the market's high confidence in GOP retention of NC-03. With $21.2M in open interest but only $1.6M in 24-hour volume, liquidity is relatively thin for the position size, and the elevated 6 Cliff Risk Index suggests potential for sharp repricing as the November 2026 election approaches. The price has remained stable over the past week (84¢ to 85¢) with a tight 2¢ spread, indicating consensus around Republican favorability in this district, though the extreme yield skew warrants caution about tail-risk assumptions embedded in the market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NC-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade