Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

The 11¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in NATO departure despite substantial liquidity of $43.1M open interest, with the Yes side offering an outsized 1145% implied yield that suggests significant tail-risk premium rather than genuine probability assessment. The tight 1¢ spread and modest 24-hour volume of $104.7K indicate this is a relatively stable, well-arbitraged market where the consensus heavily favors NATO cohesion through end-2026. With 258 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, the market appears fairly priced around geopolitical baseline risk, though the extreme yield asymmetry warrants caution about whether tail hedgers are overvaluing a black-swan scenario.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade