Will the Democratic Party win the TX-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing TX-02 at just 12¢, implying only a 12% win probability in a district Republicans currently hold, which aligns with historical partisan lean but warrants scrutiny given the extremely illiquid market ($0 in 24h volume despite $13k open interest). The asymmetric implied yields—1,334% for Yes versus 25% for No—reflect the long-shot pricing, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 suggests meaningful uncertainty about how this race could resolve as we approach the November 2026 election 201 days out. The modest 1¢ price appreciation over seven days and 3¢ spread indicate minimal recent conviction despite the substantial open interest, suggesting this market may be underexplored relative to its potential importance.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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