Will the Democratic Party win the TX-06 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $20,449 in open interest, suggesting the 12¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The 1,333.9% implied yield on the Yes side is extraordinarily high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than realistic odds—TX-06 is a heavily Republican district where a Democratic win would be a major upset, making even 12% seem generous. With 201 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 7, this appears to be a speculative position with minimal price discovery rather than an efficiently priced market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade